July 21, 2026 | Source: The Jerusalem Post
OPED: Israel’s Arab vote potential
Politicians ignore potential election-winning demographic
By Mohammad Darawshe
The ultimate test of a shared society in Israel is whether all citizens are fully engaged in the political process. Arab citizens make up 21% of Israel’s population and roughly 17% of eligible voters. Their electoral potential is significant: Under the right circumstances, Arab voters could determine which bloc forms the next government.
The outcome of the October elections will depend on three factors – how many Arab parties run, Arab voter turnout, and whether Jewish political leaders are willing to include an Arab party in a governing coalition.
In previous elections, Arab political participation demonstrated its potential power. The Joint List won 15 seats in 2015 and 13 in 2020, becoming the Knesset’s third-largest faction. In 2021, the United Arab List (UAL) made history as the first Arab party to join an Israeli governing coalition. Although that government, led by Naftali Bennett and later Yair Lapid, lasted only 18 months, the inclusion of an Arab party was transformative.
Yet the 2026 campaigns are largely ignoring Arab voters. Jewish leaders across the political spectrum – even those in the Center-Left, including Bennett and Lapid – have pledged not to include an Arab party in the next coalition. This exclusionary rhetoric risks discouraging Arab citizens from exercising their right to vote. Only 53% voted in 2022.
Ignoring the demographic reality of Israel is shortsighted. Israel’s Declaration of Independence promises a shared and inclusive society that guarantees political equality alongside social equality.
Since no party has ever won an outright majority, coalition governments are the backbone of Israel’s parliamentary system. If the Together Party, led by Bennett and Lapid, wins the election, forming a coalition without an Arab party will be extremely difficult. The same is true for Yashar, headed by Gadi Eisenkot.
Arab citizens have made significant strides in many areas of Israeli society. Their growing presence in higher education, employment, and especially the medical sector reflects their vital contribution to Israel’s economic and academic success. But full partnership in the political sphere remains elusive. It is deeply troubling when even centrist leaders exclude citizens based solely on their Arab identity.
The public, however, is ahead of the politicians. More than 77% of Arab citizens support including an Arab party in the government. Among Jewish citizens, support is much lower – around 30%. This gap reflects deeper tensions in majority-minority relations. A national survey by Givat Haviva found that 72% of Jewish Israelis do not trust most Arab citizens, while 43% of Arabs say the same of Jews.
Polarization is dangerous for Israeli democracy. The country needs leaders who represent all citizens and who can build meaningful connections across its diverse population. Instead, division has become a political strategy.
The politics of exclusion
To form the most right-wing government in Israel’s history, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu encouraged Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir to merge their lists in 2022, later rewarding them with senior cabinet posts. Their hostility toward Arab citizens has only deepened societal fractures.
Fragmentation is also evident within both Jewish and Arab political camps. With a 3.25% electoral threshold, several parties are unlikely to win seats, wasting votes. This was a compelling argument for reviving the Joint List – a move supported by 82% of Arab voters.
Arab MKs have suggested that high turnout could yield as many as 20 seats. Demographically, this is unrealistic. Even matching the record 15 seats will be challenging. Arab citizens constitute about 17% of eligible voters, due to age distribution and non-citizen subgroups.
Negotiations to revive the Joint List ultimately failed. Israel now appears headed toward two separate Arab lists. UAL is expected to run independently, driven by its agenda of entering the next government. The other three Arab parties – Hadash, Balad, and Ta’al – are willing only to provide external political support to a government committed to improving Arab citizens’ social and economic conditions and engaging in meaningful peace negotiations with the Palestinians.
Earlier, UAL leader Mansour Abbas attempted to unite the parties in a “technical joint list” to ensure all four passed the electoral threshold and avoided wasted votes. But with talks collapsing, this strategy is no longer viable.
Meanwhile, Smotrich and Ben-Gvir split their alliance after Election Day in 2022, while Labor and Meretz split before the election – with Meretz failing to pass the threshold and Labor reduced to four seats.
Despite ideological differences, Abbas indicated he would support reviving the Joint List if UAL could separate after Election Day, allowing him to pursue coalition participation as he did five years ago – assuming the next Jewish-led government is willing to include an Arab party.
The opportunity to advance Jewish-Arab relations through a more inclusive government is within reach. The question is not whether Arab citizens are ready for partnership – they are. The question is which Jewish political leader will be courageous enough to take their hand?
The writer is director of strategy for Givat Haviva.